Ukraine’s electricity supply risks “severe disruptions” this winter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned, urging Kyiv’s allies to help address the country’s energy security.

Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with missiles and drones since its full-scale invasion in February 2022, but its bombardments have intensified recently, leaving the country in a precarious position as colder weather approaches.

“Ukraine’s energy system has made it through the past two winters thanks to the resilience, courage and ingenuity of its people and strong solidarity from its international partners,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement Thursday.

“But this winter will be, by far, its sternest test yet.”

Last month, Russia launched one of its largest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, firing more than 200 missiles and drones mainly at energy infrastructure. The onslaught caused power outages in several Ukrainian cities, affecting millions of households. Ukraine has also attacked Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Even before that attack by Moscow, more than two-thirds of Ukraine’s pre-war power generation capacity was offline because it had been destroyed, damaged or occupied by Russian forces, the IEA said in a report.

That has made rolling blackouts, which can also affect water supply, a feature of daily life in Ukraine.

“The situation could become even more dire as the days get shorter and colder,” the agency cautioned. “A yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand risks emerging — bringing the threat of even more severe disruptions to hospitals, schools and other key institutions in the depths of winter.”

The IEA estimates that Ukraine’s electricity supply shortfall could reach as much as 6 gigawatts this winter, or almost a third of expected peak demand and equivalent to the peak annual demand of Denmark, for example.

In its report, the agency outlines 10 measures that Ukraine and its allies should implement to tackle risks to the country’s energy supply. These include bolstering the physical and cyber security of critical energy infrastructure, expediting delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs, investing in energy efficiency and increasing the capacity to import electricity and natural gas from the European Union.

But, according to the report, effective air defense is “by far the most important” measure to safeguard the minimum level of energy services in Ukraine through the coming months.

Help from frozen Russian assets

To help Ukraine through the upcoming winter, the EU will disburse €160 million ($179 million) — including €60 million ($67 million) in humanitarian aid for shelters and heaters, and €100 million ($112 million) for repair works and renewable energy, with the larger amount flowing from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.

“It is only right that Russia pays for the destruction it caused,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters Thursday. She also noted that the EU had contributed at least €2 billion ($2.2 billion) toward Ukraine’s energy system since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.

Work currently underway to repair Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and connect its electricity grid to the rest of Europe will cover more than 25% of the country’s energy needs this winter, according to the president of the EU’s executive arm.

In one example of such efforts, a thermal power plant in Lithuania is being dismantled and shipped to Ukraine where it will be reassembled. The EU has also dispatched solar panels to 21 hospitals in the country, eight of which will be “fully equipped” by the winter, she said.